Wednesday, September 26, 2007

NFL 2007 Week 4

Okay folks, remember, I do not endorse gambling of any kind, and I don't know anything about what I'm doing, so don't use these picks to go and blow your life savings. (I'm picking the teams in bold.)

2007 Week 4 Picks
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog
9/30 1:00 ET At Miami -4 Oakland
9/30 1:00 ET Houston -3 At Atlanta
9/30 1:00 ET Baltimore -4.5 At Cleveland
9/30 1:00 ET Chicago -3 At Detroit
9/30 1:00 ET Green Bay -2 At Minnesota
9/30 1:00 ET At Dallas -13 St. Louis
9/30 1:00 ET NY Jets -3.5 At Buffalo
9/30 4:05 ET At Carolina -3 Tampa Bay
9/30 4:05 ET Seattle -2 At San Francisco
9/30 4:15 ET Pittsburgh -6 At Arizona
9/30 4:15 ET At San Diego -12 Kansas City
9/30 4:15 ET At Indianapolis -9.5 Denver
9/30 8:15 ET Philadelphia -2.5 At NY Giants
10/1 8:30 ET New England -7 At Cincinnati

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Mike Gundy Defends His Players


I think he's right on, and I admire him for saying it. He was criticized by various media groups. From ESPN.com:
Football Writers Association of America president Mike Griffith issued a statement about the incident on Monday.

"I consider Coach Gundy's behavior completely inappropriate. It shows a lack of respect for the media and doesn't speak well for the university and the fans that he represents. Coach Gundy's actions have brought national attention and further scrutiny to the situation that could have been handled in a more private and appropriate matter."

The Association for Women in Sports Media issued a statement Monday night saying Gundy handled the situation in an "unprofessional manner" and that while he has a right to express his opinion, "his decision to air his objections in the form of a personal attack shows a lack of respect for all journalists."

Regarding the first: It is not true that Gundy showed a lack of respect for the media -- he showed a lack of respect for one journalist and one newspaper editor, not for media as such. Furthermore, he made an argument which justified his lack of respect, and that argument is right on. Anyone who treats kids that way doesn't deserve respect. Further, by handling it the way he handled it, he showed his players that he has their back, which, if anything, is the whole point of what he is saying.

To the second, I fail to see how he showed disrespect for all journalists. If you watch the tape, you'll hear people applauding as he leaves the press conference. Apparently some in the press appreciated what he had to say. He made a personal attack on a woman whose article was a personal attack. In other words, his actions are appropriately characterized as a defense of what is simple and good, in the face of those whose ignorance and faux-sophistication keep them from understanding the simplest of human relations of mother and son. The article itself is unprofessional, unprofessional and cruel, the product of someone who's never gotten out of the fluorescent lights of the newspaper office to see what real life is like and to learn about actual people. It is a shame that these writers associations would defend this. It shows -- but hey, we already knew it, I guess -- that the arrogance of the press has no limits.

NFL 2007 Week 3 Results

2007 Week 3 Picks
Favorite Line Underdog Score Outcome
At Baltimore -7.5 Arizona Bal 26, Az 23 Win
San Diego -4.5 At Green Bay GB 31, SD 24 Win
Indianapolis -5.5 At Houston Indy 30, Hou 24 Loss
At Kansas City -2.5 Minnesota KC 13, Minn 10 Loss
At New England -15.5 Buffalo NE 38, Buf 7 Win
At New York Jets -2.5 Miami NY 31, Mi 28 Win
At Philadelphia -5.5 Detroit Phi 56, Det 21 Loss
At Pittsburgh -8.5 San Francisco Pitt 37, SF 16 Win
At Tampa Bay -3.5 St. Louis TB 24, SL 3 Win
At Denver -3.5 Jacksonville Jac 23, Den 14 Win
At Oakland -2.5 Cleveland Oak 26, Cle 24 Win
At Seattle -3.5 Cincinnati Sea 24, Cin 21 Loss
Carolina -3.5 At Atlanta Car 27, Atl 20 Win
At Washington -3.5 New York Giants NY 24, Was 17 Loss
At Chicago -2.5 Dallas Dal 34, Chi 10 Loss
At New Orleans -4.5 Tennessee Tenn 31, NO 14 Win

Weekly Total: 10-6
Running Total: 24-24

Back to even!

Monday, September 24, 2007

NFL 2007 Week 3 Results (partial)

2007 Week 3 Picks
Favorite Line Underdog Score Outcome
At Baltimore -7.5 Arizona Bal 26, Az 23 Win
San Diego -4.5 At Green Bay GB 31, SD 24 Win
Indianapolis -5.5 At Houston Indy 30, Hou 24 Loss
At Kansas City -2.5 Minnesota KC 13, Minn 10 Loss
At New England -15.5 Buffalo NE 38, Buf 7 Win
At New York Jets -2.5 Miami NY 31, Mi 28 Win
At Philadelphia -5.5 Detroit Phi 56, Det 21 Loss
At Pittsburgh -8.5 San Francisco Pitt 37, SF 16 Win
At Tampa Bay -3.5 St. Louis TB 24, SL 3 Win
At Denver -3.5 Jacksonville Jac 23, Den 14 Win
At Oakland -2.5 Cleveland Oak 26, Cle 24 Win
At Seattle -3.5 Cincinnati Sea 24, Cin 21 Loss
Carolina -3.5 At Atlanta Car 27, Atl 20 Win
At Washington -3.5 New York Giants NY 24, Was 17 Loss
At Chicago -2.5 Dallas Dal 34, Chi 10 Loss
At New Orleans -4.5 Tennessee


Weekly Total: 9-6
Running Total: 23-24

Thursday, September 20, 2007

NFL 2007 Week 3

More picks! Last week I did terrible, so here's to better luck this time around. Remember, I do not endorse gambling of any kind, and I don't know anything about what I'm doing, so don't use these picks to go and blow your life savings. (I'm picking the teams in bold)

2007 Week 3 Picks
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog
9/23 1:00 ET At Baltimore -7.5 Arizona
9/23 1:00 ET San Diego -4.5 At Green Bay
9/23 1:00 ET Indianapolis -5.5 At Houston
9/23 1:00 ET At Kansas City -2.5 Minnesota
9/23 1:00 ET At New England -15.5 Buffalo
9/23 1:00 ET At New York Jets -2.5 Miami
9/23 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -5.5 Detroit
9/23 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -8.5 San Francisco
9/23 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3.5 St. Louis
9/23 4:05 ET At Denver -3.5 Jacksonville
9/23 4:05 ET At Oakland -2.5 Cleveland
9/23 4:05 ET At Seattle -3.5 Cincinnati
9/23 4:15 ET Carolina -3.5 At Atlanta
9/23 4:15 ET At Washington -3.5 New York Giants
9/23 8:15 ET At Chicago -2.5 Dallas
9/24 8:30 ET At New Orleans -4.5 Tennessee

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

NFL 2007 Week 2 Results

2007 Week 2 Results
Favorite Line Underdog Score Outcome
At Pittsburgh -9.5 Buffalo Pitt 26, Buf 3 Win
Cincinnati -6.5 At Cleveland Clev 51, Cinn 45 Loss
Indianapolis -6.5 At Tennessee Indy 22, Tenn 20 Loss
At Carolina -6.5 Houston Hou 34, Car 21 Win
At St. Louis -2.5 San Francisco SF 27, SL 16 Win
At NY Giants -1 Green Bay GB 35, NY 13 Loss
At Jacksonville -10.5 Atlanta Jac 13, Atl 7 Loss
New Orleans -3.5 At Tampa Bay TB 31, NO 14 Loss
At Detroit -2.5 Minnesota Det 21, Min 17 Loss
Dallas -3.5 At Miami Dal 37, Mi 20 Loss
Seattle -2.5 At Arizona Az 23, Sea 20 Loss
At Baltimore -10 NY Jets Bal 20, NY 13 Win
At Denver -9.5 Oakland Den 23, Oak 20 Loss
At Chicago -12.5 Kansas City Chi 20, KC 10 Win
At New England -3.5 San Diego NE 38, SD 14 Loss
At Philadelphia -6.5 Washington Wash 20, Phi 12 Loss

Weekly total: 5-11
Running total: 14-18

Monday, September 17, 2007

NFL 2007 Week 2 Results (Partial)

2007 Week 2 Results
Favorite Line Underdog Score Outcome
At Pittsburgh -9.5 Buffalo Pitt 26, Buf 3 Win
Cincinnati -6.5 At Cleveland Clev 51, Cinn 45 Loss
Indianapolis -6.5 At Tennessee Indy 22, Tenn 20 Loss
At Carolina -6.5 Houston Hou 34, Car 21 Win
At St. Louis -2.5 San Francisco SF 27, SL 16 Win
At NY Giants -1 Green Bay GB 35, NY 13 Loss
At Jacksonville -10.5 Atlanta Jac 13, Atl 7 Loss
New Orleans -3.5 At Tampa Bay TB 31, NO 14 Loss
At Detroit -2.5 Minnesota Det 21, Min 17 Loss
Dallas -3.5 At Miami Dal 37, Mi 20 Loss
Seattle -2.5 At Arizona Az 23, Sea 20 Loss
At Baltimore -10 NY Jets Bal 20, NY 13 Win
At Denver -9.5 Oakland Den 23, Oak 20 Loss
At Chicago -12.5 Kansas City Chi 20, KC 10 Win
At New England -3.5 San Diego NE 38, SD 14 Loss
At Philadelphia -6.5 Washington

Weekly total: 5-10
Running total: 14-17

Friday, September 14, 2007

Those Dutch Dominicans

I may not be the biggest fan of the Southern Provence of the Dominican order here in the US, but at least they don't publish booklets that say this! Good grief. Not only do the Dutch have toilets that try to shame you into urinating seated, they think that anyone can celebrate the Eucharist. I suppose these two ideas aren't too far apart. Men just can't be men anymore, and priests can't be priests.

Moto Proprio

The Moto Proprio permitting the celebration of the Latin Mass goes into effect today, the feast of the Exultation of the Cross. At American Catholic.org they have an interesting description of the feast. It seems very appropriate that the Moto Proprio should be enacted on this day, considering the great veneration in the symbolism and motions of the old mass for the awful and terrible magnificence of the Crucifixion. This day also has a special meaning for me, because on it 5 years ago a very good friend of mine entered the convent. I know (in that way you can know something about someone you haven't talked to in five years) that she sees this as a special sign to her of the importance of her vocation.

At Universalis.com I discovered it is also the anniversary of the death of Dante. I think there is a comic story to be written about Dante's discovery of what heaven and hell really are like. Calling all lit students ...

Comments on Week 1 (cont.)

Yesterday we looked at two of the projected favorites in Week 1 who lost. Today we'll look at one more, the St. Louis Rams.

The Rams at home were a one point favorite over Carolina -- not much of an advantage! However, nobody really expected much out of Jake Delhomme, the Panthers' QB, and people expected Marc Bulger to help St. Louis to improve on last season. However, this was not to be. It was the great Jake that stepped up in the crunch. Carolina controlled the ball for all but one second of 20 minutes in the 2nd half -- almost 2/3 of the total half. Aside from two fumbles (more on that in a moment), every Carolina play in the 2nd half resulted in points (2 TDs and 2 FGs). The scoring drives went 74, 41, 65 and 40 yards, of which the third, their second TD, was the most devastating, taking 6:32 off the clock at the beginning of the 4th quarter, when St. Louis desperately need a stop. On that drive, Carolina ran 8 times and passed four times. Only two plays did not gain yards for the Panthers: an incomplete pass by Delhomme on 1-10 from the St. Louis 28, and a run for a 3 yard loss on 1st and goal from the 6. Every other play gained at least a yard, and Carolina had 4 runs for 10 yards or more. The Rams' spirit was broken on this drive.

St. Louis, on the other hand had only 2 drives of interest in the game, their first and last drives of the 1st half. At the beginning of the game, after Carolina had marched down from the opening kickoff and scored, St. Louis came right back with an excellent drive of their own, going 67 yards for a touchdown. The drive lasted 7:20 and took 15 plays. Bulger threw 8 times on the drive, going 5-8 for 35 yards, with 2 passing first downs. Jackson, the Rams' running back, also ran well, moving the chains twice and gaining 4 or more yards four times on the drive. This drive, however, was not a prediction of things to come. The next three possessions of the half went 4 and out, punting from the Carolina 46, and their own 41 and 34. On the final possession of the half, beginning just after the two-minute warning, St. Louis gained 34 yards (admittedly 22 on penalties) and kicked a field goal as time expired, putting St. Louis in the lead at the half.

The second half, however, St. Louis accomplished absolutely nothing until there was only 7 minutes left, at which point the damage had been done. Perhaps the most indicative drive was their first of the 2nd half. Dante Hall ran the kickoff back 84 yards to the Carolina 17. However, St. Louis could only move the ball 7 yards, and had to settle for a field goal. A TD on this drive would have put the Rams up by 10, and maybe changed the complexion of the game. However, by only settling for a FG, Carolina remained within one score of the lead.

One final point about this game: Neither team played consistently well the whole game. Carolina and St. Louis both had 2 fumbles for turnovers in the 2nd half. At it often seems to happen, the Rams' drive that started with a turnover ended with the Rams' giving it right back 3 plays later, leading to the Panther's 2nd TD. Similarly the Rams' 2nd turnover was given right back by Carolina 5 plays later. However, unlike Carolina, who scored, the Rams went 3 and out and had to punt. Carolina recovered that punt on their own 42, drove 41 yards and kicked a field goal. Carolina made the most of St. Louis's mistakes. That, combined with their dominance of the 2nd half -- especially the 4th quarter -- is the reason Carolina won.

Again, though, I expect St. Louis to do better as the season progresses. They have a high-flying offense, dependent upon accurate passing and route running. In the pre-season, teams take it easy to avoid injury, but that means that when defenses really start hitting in game 1, the offense can be thrown off. As they get up to game speed, however, they should have fewer and fewer of those 3- or 4-and-outs.

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Football Outsiders

I'd like to direct your attention to a fascinating group of folks over at Football Outsiders, a group of stat-freaks who have developed their own weird stats to quantify the relative strength and weakness of each NFL team and their players. I hate to say it, but according to them, the Jets were the worst team in the NFL last Sunday. Be sure to read the explanations they give of their different stats, because otherwise you won't know what the heck is going on. Enjoy!

Comments on Week 1

Last week, the favorite went 11-5 in covering the spread. The favorites who didn't cover were Denver (who did win the game, but only by a point), Jacksonville, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Oakland. The last four teams not only didn't cover, but lost outright. This, along with the general poor play overall in week 1, is perhaps attributable to the greater difficulty offenses have, as opposed to defenses, in getting on the same page. It takes the offense longer to cohere and work well as a unit than the defense. Of these five teams, only Oakland isn't expected to do anything on offense this year, and Oakland was only the favorite because Detroit was expected to be worse. Consider the following two teams, Denver and Jacksonville.

Denver had five attempted field goals, of which two were missed (one from 50 yards, one from 43 yards). They drove the ball well, averaging 7.5 yards per pass and 5.3 yards per rush. But inside the red zone, they stalled and had to settle for field goals. They were only 4-13 on 3rd-down attempts, much too low. If Denver had played as well on third down as it did on 1st and 2nd down, and if Denver had converted its opportunities in the red zone, they would have easily covered. As the season progresses, I expect Denver's offense to improve in these situations.

In the Jacksonville game, Jacksonville couldn't stop Tennessee's running game. The Titans converted 50% of their third downs, and averaged 5.8 yards per rush. However, Jacksonville's problems on defense would have been helped if their vaunted offense had done anything. However, the Jags couldn't muster more than 72 yards rushing and went 17-30 on pass plays (57%). Their drives ended as follows: punt, touchdown, punt, field goal, punt, downs, fumble, punt, punt. The turnover on downs at the beginning of the 2nd half was perhaps the most demoralizing. They were on the Titans' 19, having started on their own 20. They had eaten 7:27 off the clock, but couldn't turn that good work into points. The next drive, they again were moving down the field, but turned the ball over on a fumble. After that, they couldn't muster more than two straight three-and-outs and walked off the field, beaten at home by the inferior Tennessee Titans. Jacksonville last year was the most inconsistent team in the NFL -- one of the most inconsistent teams in the last 10 years -- and they look to be continuing that trend. If they can't stop the run, they will have trouble keeping teams off the field, and a lot of pressure will be put on the offense to score when they have the opportunity. Look for Jacksonville's offense to improve as they have more on-field time together.

NFL 2007 Week 2

As I said last week, I'm going to be using this blog for my weekly predictions against the spread. I do not endorse gambling of any kind, and I don't know anything about what I'm doing, so don't use these picks to go and blow your life savings. (I'm picking the teams in bold)

2007 Week 2 Picks
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog
9/16 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -9.5 Buffalo
9/16 1:00 ET Cincinnati -7 At Cleveland
9/16 1:00 ET Indianapolis -7 At Tennessee
9/16 1:00 ET At Carolina -6.5 Houston
9/16 1:00 ET At St. Louis -3 San Francisco
9/16 1:00 ET At NY Giants -1 Green Bay
9/16 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -10.5 Atlanta
9/16 1:00 ET New Orleans -3.5 At Tampa Bay
9/16 4:05 ET At Detroit -3 Minnesota
9/16 4:05 ET Dallas -4 At Miami
9/16 4:05 ET Seattle -3 At Arizona
9/16 4:15 ET At Baltimore -10 NY Jets
9/16 4:15 ET At Denver -10 Oakland
9/16 4:15 ET At Chicago -12 Kansas City
9/16 8:15 ET At New England -3.5 San Diego
9/17 8:30 ET At Philadelphia -7 Washington

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

NFL 2007 Week 1 Results

2007 Week 1 Results
Favorite Line Underdog Score Outcome
At Indianapolis -5.5 New Orleans Indy 41, NO 10 Win
At Houston -3 Kansas City Hou 20, KC 3 Loss
Denver -3.5 At Buffalo Den 15, Buf 14 Loss
Pittsburgh -4.5 At Cleveland Pitt 37, Cle 7 Win
At Jacksonville -6.5 Tennessee Tenn 13, Jac 10 Win
At St. Louis -1 Carolina Car 27, St.L 13 Loss
Philadelphia -2.5 At Green Bay GB 16, Phil 13 Win
At Minnesota -2.5 Atlanta Minn 24, Atl 3 Win
At Washington -2.5 Miami Wash 16, Mi 13 Loss
New England -6.5 At NY Jets NE 38, NY 14 Loss
At Seattle -5.5 Tampa Bay Sea 20, TB 6 Win
At San Diego -5.5 Chicago SD 14, Chi 3 Loss
At Oakland -1.5 Detroit Det 36, Oak 21 Win
At Dallas -5.5 NY Giants Dal 45, NY 35 Win
At Cincinnati -2.5 Baltimore Cinci 27, Bal 20 Win
At San Francisco -2.5 Arizona SF 20, AZ 17 Loss

Weekly Total: 9-7
Running Total: 9-7

Monday, September 10, 2007

Liturgical Hand Signals

Taking a time out from football, I direct your attention to The Curt Jestor, whose post on referees for mass is quite funny. I think my favorite is "Liturgical Dance Detected." Enjoy!

NFL 2007 Week 1 Results (partial)

Well, I hate New England, and it's going to be a long year.

2007 Week 1 Results
Favorite Line Underdog Score Outcome
At Indianapolis -5.5 New Orleans Indy 41, NO 10 Win
At Houston -3 Kansas City Hou 20, KC 3 Loss
Denver -3.5 At Buffalo Den 15, Buf 14 Loss
Pittsburgh -4.5 At Cleveland Pitt 37, Cle 7 Win
At Jacksonville -6.5 Tennessee Tenn 13, Jac 10 Win
At St. Louis -1 Carolina Car 27, St.L 13 Loss
Philadelphia -2.5 At Green Bay GB 16, Phil 13 Win
At Minnesota -2.5 Atlanta Minn 24, Atl 3 Win
At Washington -2.5 Miami Wash 16, Mi 13 Loss
New England -6.5 At NY Jets NE 38, NY 14 Loss
At Seattle -5.5 Tampa Bay Sea 20, TB 6 Win
At San Diego -5.5 Chicago SD 14, Chi 3 Loss
At Oakland -1.5 Detroit Det 36, Oak 21 Win
At Dallas -5.5 NY Giants Dal 45, NY 35 Win
At Cincinnati -2.5 Baltimore
At San Francisco -2.5 Arizona

Running Total: 8-6

Friday, September 07, 2007

Indy covers

Well, so far I'm batting 1.000. Indy 41, NO 10. The really surprising thing was how poorly New Orleans' offense played. They didn't do anything against the Indy defense all night. Their only touchdown came on a fumble recovery. Also, I wouldn't want to be NO corner Jason David, who got beat three times for TDs. What really stands out in the box score, however, is Indy's yards per pass (9.6) and yards per run (5.7). I think, even given a bad NO defense, that Indy's offense will, like usual, be too much too handle all season.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Pre-season odds on the 2008 Super Bowl winner

Paradise Poker gives the following as odds on the 2008 Super Bowl winner. Let me remind you that I do not endorse gambling of any kind and that I don't know anything about what I'm doing, so don't use these picks to go and blow your life savings.

Team Odds
New England 4/1
San Diego 6/1
Indianapolis 8/1
Chicago 12/1
New Orleans 14/1
Baltimore 20/1
Carolina 20/1
Cincinnati 20/1
Dallas 20/1
Denver 20/1
Philadelphia 20/1
Pittsburgh 25/1
Seattle 25/1
Jacksonville 28/1
New York Giants 33/1
San Francisco 33/1
Kansas City 40/1
New York Jets 40/1
Tennessee 40/1
Washington 40/1
Arizona 50/1
St Louis 50/1
Buffalo 66/1
Green Bay 66/1
Miami 66/1
Tampa Bay 66/1
Atlanta 80/1
Cleveland 80/1
Minnesota 80/1
Detroit 100/1
Houston 100/1
Oakland 200/1

If you add all these odds, you get a total greater than 1 (it's 1.4359). This means that to have action on every team, so that no matter who wins you'll win $200, you would have to lay out $287.17. In other words, you'd be guaranteed to lose $87. Now, if you only have action on the top 11 teams (the sum of whose odds is .9964), so that if one of them wins you'll make $200 (i.e., you lay out $50 on New England, $33.33 on San Diego, and so on), you will have laid out $199.29. Thus, as long as one of the bottom 21 teams does not win, you are guaranteed to make 71 cents. This indicates a general principal in betting. First, fix an arbitrary number for your winnings (in my case it was $200). Then, eliminate from the pool of teams on which you will be having action enough teams (those you think will lose) so that the sum of their odds is less than 1. Then multiply your arbitrary winnings total by each team's odds an lay out that amount on each team (so, for example, on New England, I multiplied 1/4 and $200 to get $50). You will lay out less than your given winnings and you will be guaranteed to make money, as long as none of the teams you eliminated wins. The smaller the total sum of the odds of the teams on which you're betting, the more money you will make if one of those teams wins.

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

The experts

Sportsline.com's experts post their weekly predictions against the spread at this link. I'll be measuring my success against them this year. We'll see.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Oh yeah

In case you haven't heard, I'm getting married.

NFL 2007 Week 1

I'm going to be using this blog for my weekly predictions against the spread. I do not endorse gambling of any kind, and I don't know anything about what I'm doing, so don't use these picks to go and blow your life savings. (I'm picking the teams in bold)

2007 Week 1 Picks
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog
9/6 8:30 ET At Indianapolis -5.5 New Orleans
9/9 1:00 ET At Houston -3 Kansas City
9/9 1:00 ET Denver -3.5 At Buffalo
9/9 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -4.5 At Cleveland
9/9 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -6.5 Tennessee
9/9 1:00 ET At St. Louis -1 Carolina
9/9 1:00 ET Philadelphia -2.5 At Green Bay
9/9 1:00 ET At Minnesota -2.5 Atlanta
9/9 1:00 ET At Washington -2.5 Miami
9/9 1:00 ET New England -6.5 At NY Jets
9/9 4:15 ET At Seattle -5.5 Tampa Bay
9/9 4:15 ET At San Diego -5.5 Chicago
9/9 4:15 ET At Oakland -1.5 Detroit
9/9 8:15 ET At Dallas -5.5 NY Giants
9/10 7:00 ET At Cincinnati -2.5 Baltimore
9/10 10:15 ET At San Francisco -2.5 Arizona