Comments on Week 1
Last week, the favorite went 11-5 in covering the spread. The favorites who didn't cover were Denver (who did win the game, but only by a point), Jacksonville, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Oakland. The last four teams not only didn't cover, but lost outright. This, along with the general poor play overall in week 1, is perhaps attributable to the greater difficulty offenses have, as opposed to defenses, in getting on the same page. It takes the offense longer to cohere and work well as a unit than the defense. Of these five teams, only Oakland isn't expected to do anything on offense this year, and Oakland was only the favorite because Detroit was expected to be worse. Consider the following two teams, Denver and Jacksonville.
Denver had five attempted field goals, of which two were missed (one from 50 yards, one from 43 yards). They drove the ball well, averaging 7.5 yards per pass and 5.3 yards per rush. But inside the red zone, they stalled and had to settle for field goals. They were only 4-13 on 3rd-down attempts, much too low. If Denver had played as well on third down as it did on 1st and 2nd down, and if Denver had converted its opportunities in the red zone, they would have easily covered. As the season progresses, I expect Denver's offense to improve in these situations.
In the Jacksonville game, Jacksonville couldn't stop Tennessee's running game. The Titans converted 50% of their third downs, and averaged 5.8 yards per rush. However, Jacksonville's problems on defense would have been helped if their vaunted offense had done anything. However, the Jags couldn't muster more than 72 yards rushing and went 17-30 on pass plays (57%). Their drives ended as follows: punt, touchdown, punt, field goal, punt, downs, fumble, punt, punt. The turnover on downs at the beginning of the 2nd half was perhaps the most demoralizing. They were on the Titans' 19, having started on their own 20. They had eaten 7:27 off the clock, but couldn't turn that good work into points. The next drive, they again were moving down the field, but turned the ball over on a fumble. After that, they couldn't muster more than two straight three-and-outs and walked off the field, beaten at home by the inferior Tennessee Titans. Jacksonville last year was the most inconsistent team in the NFL -- one of the most inconsistent teams in the last 10 years -- and they look to be continuing that trend. If they can't stop the run, they will have trouble keeping teams off the field, and a lot of pressure will be put on the offense to score when they have the opportunity. Look for Jacksonville's offense to improve as they have more on-field time together.
Denver had five attempted field goals, of which two were missed (one from 50 yards, one from 43 yards). They drove the ball well, averaging 7.5 yards per pass and 5.3 yards per rush. But inside the red zone, they stalled and had to settle for field goals. They were only 4-13 on 3rd-down attempts, much too low. If Denver had played as well on third down as it did on 1st and 2nd down, and if Denver had converted its opportunities in the red zone, they would have easily covered. As the season progresses, I expect Denver's offense to improve in these situations.
In the Jacksonville game, Jacksonville couldn't stop Tennessee's running game. The Titans converted 50% of their third downs, and averaged 5.8 yards per rush. However, Jacksonville's problems on defense would have been helped if their vaunted offense had done anything. However, the Jags couldn't muster more than 72 yards rushing and went 17-30 on pass plays (57%). Their drives ended as follows: punt, touchdown, punt, field goal, punt, downs, fumble, punt, punt. The turnover on downs at the beginning of the 2nd half was perhaps the most demoralizing. They were on the Titans' 19, having started on their own 20. They had eaten 7:27 off the clock, but couldn't turn that good work into points. The next drive, they again were moving down the field, but turned the ball over on a fumble. After that, they couldn't muster more than two straight three-and-outs and walked off the field, beaten at home by the inferior Tennessee Titans. Jacksonville last year was the most inconsistent team in the NFL -- one of the most inconsistent teams in the last 10 years -- and they look to be continuing that trend. If they can't stop the run, they will have trouble keeping teams off the field, and a lot of pressure will be put on the offense to score when they have the opportunity. Look for Jacksonville's offense to improve as they have more on-field time together.
posted by Whiskey at 6:54 AM
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