Some predictions
I have a theory that in the NFL, the difference in talent between the very best teams and the very worst teams is tiny. Because a touchdown is worth 7 pts., scores are magnified, which makes blowouts look worse than they are. For example, this week the 49ers won 35-0. Total domination, right? But 35pts is really just 5 touchdowns. It's a 5-0 game in baseball. So my theory is that we intuitively overvalue blowouts in football, because they look larger than they really are.
Because the talent difference between teams is so small, other seemingly insignificant things become very important. For example, luck is a huge factor in football. The New England Patriots didn't make the playoffs in 2008 despite their 11-5 record because the Jets didn't beat the Dolphins that last week of the regular season. On the other hand, the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals, called the worst playoff team in NFL history by Chris Collinsworth, made the playoffs because play in a terrible division -- and they managed to win three more games and made the Superbowl. In this and million other ways luck radically changes the outlook of every NFL season.
But other "intangibles" are equally important. Having good team chemistry. Having good clock management; having a "winning culture." These things are unquantifiable, though that doesn't mean they can't be identified. It is not an accident that the most successful teams in the last decade, the Patriots, the Steelers, and the Giants, all have owners that demand what I will call "sports" virtue. I define "sports" virtue as including the following: a fanatical commitment to hard work and self-sacrifice; a team-first attitude; and a never-quit-no-matter-how-bad-the-odds desire to win. Every well run organization will instill these virtues in all parts of the organization, from the players to the coaches to the front office. This virtue does not guarantee a good team, but the absence of it guarantees a bad team.
So this week I watched the highlights of the various 0-3 teams who finished the weekend 0-4. And in every game, there was some play -- an interception, a running back breaking free -- where NOBODY even tried to run the streaking opponent down. And I thought, this team has given up. And that's because they haven't been taught sports virtue. And that, mostly, is the fault of the owner.
So I have some predictions. Oakland will never again finish with a winning record as long as Al Davis is the owner. The Dallas Cowboys will not win a Superbowl again as long as Jerry Jones cares more about getting his face on Sportscenter than about having a team which is accountable for its mistakes. The Tampa Bay Bucs, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the St. Louis Rams will all continue to have more losing seasons than winning seasons as long as their players believe that quitting on their team has no repercussions. And the Tennessee Titans will bounce back and be generally successful, because from the top down, they instill virtue.
Because the talent difference between teams is so small, other seemingly insignificant things become very important. For example, luck is a huge factor in football. The New England Patriots didn't make the playoffs in 2008 despite their 11-5 record because the Jets didn't beat the Dolphins that last week of the regular season. On the other hand, the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals, called the worst playoff team in NFL history by Chris Collinsworth, made the playoffs because play in a terrible division -- and they managed to win three more games and made the Superbowl. In this and million other ways luck radically changes the outlook of every NFL season.
But other "intangibles" are equally important. Having good team chemistry. Having good clock management; having a "winning culture." These things are unquantifiable, though that doesn't mean they can't be identified. It is not an accident that the most successful teams in the last decade, the Patriots, the Steelers, and the Giants, all have owners that demand what I will call "sports" virtue. I define "sports" virtue as including the following: a fanatical commitment to hard work and self-sacrifice; a team-first attitude; and a never-quit-no-matter-how-bad-the-odds desire to win. Every well run organization will instill these virtues in all parts of the organization, from the players to the coaches to the front office. This virtue does not guarantee a good team, but the absence of it guarantees a bad team.
So this week I watched the highlights of the various 0-3 teams who finished the weekend 0-4. And in every game, there was some play -- an interception, a running back breaking free -- where NOBODY even tried to run the streaking opponent down. And I thought, this team has given up. And that's because they haven't been taught sports virtue. And that, mostly, is the fault of the owner.
So I have some predictions. Oakland will never again finish with a winning record as long as Al Davis is the owner. The Dallas Cowboys will not win a Superbowl again as long as Jerry Jones cares more about getting his face on Sportscenter than about having a team which is accountable for its mistakes. The Tampa Bay Bucs, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the St. Louis Rams will all continue to have more losing seasons than winning seasons as long as their players believe that quitting on their team has no repercussions. And the Tennessee Titans will bounce back and be generally successful, because from the top down, they instill virtue.
posted by Whiskey at 2:15 PM
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